#management

How much should we trust experts? You must ask the right questions!

Bill Holmes

Dec 29, 2022
2 min

How much should we trust experts? You must ask the right questions!

“Good swimmers didn’t depend on swimming rings. They made use of their guts!” Michael Bassey Johnson, Song of a Nature Lover “Take it from me, an authority on expertise: You can't trust experts.” Jeff Schmidt, Disciplined Minds: A Critical Look at Salaried Professionals and the Soul-Battering System That Shapes Their Lives In my last post I explained that project managers are process experts who understand the most efficient and effective way to move from Point A (current s

Bill Holmes

Dec 22, 2022
2 min

How Much Should We Trust Experts?

“Having the data is not the same as having the expertise to look through the data - if it were, everybody with a smartphone would be a doctor or a scientist.” Abhijit Naskar, Mucize Insan: When The World is Family “Without the opinion of an expert there's no such thing as certainty.” Joanna Ruocco I intentionally picked these quotes because they show two common misperceptions about experts: Expertise in a domain isn't the same as expertise in data analysis. Experts seldom b

The Process Groups Practice Guide replaces the predictive portion of the PMBOK® 6th Edition

Bill Holmes

Nov 25, 2022
2 min

The Process Groups Practice Guide replaces the predictive portion of the PMBOK® 6th Edition

“There are only two options: make progress or make excuses.” Tony Robbins “Progress is man’s ability to complicate simplicity.” Thor Heyerdahl PMI retired the 6th Edition of the PMBOK in March 2022, however the current version of the Project Management Professional® (PMP) exam preparation course material extensively references that retired document. I pointed that out in a post on October 19. You can link to that post here: https://www.projectmanagementforum.net/post/time-fo

Bill Holmes

Sep 3, 2022
3 min

How I Overcame Writer’s Block

“Don’t waste time waiting for inspiration. Begin, and inspiration will find you.” H. Jackson Brown Jr. “Writing about a writer’s block is better than not writing at all” Charles Bukowski I enjoy writing, and my blog provides an opportunity to hone my skills and get feedback from a wider audience. It is a labor of love. I don’t get paid for it and anyone who is interested can subscribe for free. I have posted a minimum of twice a month for years, and have covered topics rang

Scoring my COVID Predictions Part 5 – Skepticism about Experts

Bill Holmes

Jul 5, 2022
3 min

Scoring my COVID Predictions Part 5 – Skepticism about Experts

“Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done, and why. Then do it.” Robert A. Heinlein, Time Enough for Love “Philosophers are people who know less and less about more and more, until they know nothing about everything. Scientists are people who know more and more about less and less, until they know everything about nothing.” Konrad Lorenz Prediction 5 – People will no longer blindly follow expert’s advice. We want to follow the advice of experts. That's w

Scoring my COVID Predictions Part 4 - The Fall of the Globalist

Bill Holmes

Jun 24, 2022
2 min

Scoring my COVID Predictions Part 4 - The Fall of the Globalist

“Bad governments always lie because telling the truth requires honor and courage!” Mehmet Murat ildan “To sin by silence when they should protest makes cowards of men (and women)...” Abe Lincoln Prediction 4 – Borders matter. There will be an increase in nationalism I completely missed this one! I had predicted that “the foolishness of “elite” positions was completely exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic” and forecasted that “faced with a crisis that is literally killing thousan

Scoring my COVID Predictions Part 3 – A Shift in Education

Bill Holmes

Jun 2, 2022
2 min

Scoring my COVID Predictions Part 3 – A Shift in Education

“I have never let my schooling interfere with my education.” Mark Twain “I did then what I knew how to do. Now that I know better, I do better.” Maya Angelo Prediction 3 – High school and college education will adopt a lower cost online model. With notable exceptions! My thesis for this prediction was that colleges need the constant inflow of tuition payments, and all but the top tier schools would adopt remote learning as they realized the profit potential. With constant

Scoring my COVID Predictions Part 2 – Remote Medicine

Bill Holmes

May 1, 2022
3 min

Scoring my COVID Predictions Part 2 – Remote Medicine

“Doctors are great–as long as you don’t need them.” Edward E. Rosenbaum “Don’t misinform your doctor nor your lawyer.” Unknown As I reviewed this prediction, I realized this was one of my best researched posts. There were multiple examples of how technology was positively impacting healthcare delivery, and all of the data led to the logical conclusion that both experience and technology were driving us to more efficient and cost-effective delivery of healthcare services. M

Scoring my COVID Predictions Part 1 – The Rise of the Remote Worker

Bill Holmes

Apr 10, 2022
3 min

Scoring my COVID Predictions Part 1 – The Rise of the Remote Worker

“I can accept failure, everyone fails at something. But I can’t accept not trying.” Michael Jordan “We like to give people the freedom to work where they want, safe in the knowledge that they have the drive and expertise to perform excellently, whether they are at their desk or in their kitchen. Yours truly has never worked out of an office, and never will.” Richard Branson The COVID-19 pandemic taught us that for the right type of work, working remotely can be incredibly ef

COVID 19 Predictions – How Accurate Were They?

Bill Holmes

Apr 3, 2022
2 min

COVID 19 Predictions – How Accurate Were They?

“Our words reveal our thoughts; our manners mirror our self-esteem; our actions reflect our character; our habits predict the future.” William Arthur Ward “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Niels Bohr In early 2020 as the pandemic was just beginning to sweep across the United States, I recognized that we were witnessing a profound event that would dramatically alter the lifestyles and habits of large segments of our population. Through March, Apri

Applying Qualitative Risk Analysis to the COVID-19 Vaccine Decision - 2

Bill Holmes

Feb 23, 2022
3 min

Applying Qualitative Risk Analysis to the COVID-19 Vaccine Decision - 2

“Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.” Warren Buffett “The risk of a wrong decision is preferable to the terror of indecision.” Maimonides Everyone in the United States was faced with the choice: Do I get vaccinated? In my last post I compared the risks associated with getting vaccinated with the risk of contracting COVID-19. We also explored the quality of the available data. While the data is obviously flawed, the known risks of either decision were so small

Could Risk Management Techniques Have Helped With The Vaccination Decision?

Bill Holmes

Jan 22, 2022
3 min

Could Risk Management Techniques Have Helped With The Vaccination Decision?

“Who are you going to believe? Leading authorities on medical science, or 800 memes on your cousin’s Facebook page?” Samantha Bee “Covid-19 vaccine is the new baptism.” Nkwachukwu Ogbuagu “I am alive, well and fully vaccinated, despite pledging allegiance to no authority. Listening to experts is not complacency, it's just an act of common sense humanity.” Abhijit Naskar Those three quotes capture the dilemma that we all faced when making the vaccination decision. Early in

Bill Holmes

Jan 16, 2022
3 min

My Experience with COVID-19

“I'm just a little bit sicker than the average individual I think.” Eminem “The wolf was sick, he vowed a monk to be - But when he got well, a wolf once more was he.” Walter Bower Disclaimer! This is not medical advice! You should never take advice from someone you only know over the internet. I am just sharing our experience. My wife and I just recovered from COVID-19. We have three daughters still living in our home and my wife is a nurse, so we both knew that we woul

Bill Holmes

Jan 6, 2022
3 min

The Science of the Trashcan Fire

“He who works with his hands is a laborer. He who works with his hands and his head is a craftsman. He who works with his hands and his head and his heart is an artist.” Saint Francis of Assisi “If any man tells you he loves America, yet hates labor, he is a liar. If any man tells you he trusts America, yet fears labor, he is a fool.” Abraham Lincoln My mother and father were forged in hard times. My father lived through the Great Depression and joined the US Army when he

What young people need to know about money - Chapter 1 – Introduction

Bill Holmes

Aug 4, 2021
3 min

What young people need to know about money - Chapter 1 – Introduction

“A Penny Saved is a Penny Earned” Benjamin Franklin “Too many people spend money they haven't earned, to buy things they don't want, to impress people that they don't like.” Will Rogers I was shaped by the values of my parents. My father grew up on a farm in Iowa and survived both the Great Depression and the Dust Bowl. Life was so hard on the farm that he ran away at the age of 16 and joined the US Army to fight WW II. He fought in North Africa in WW II, then stayed in the m

My experience with “Cancel Culture”, Part 12 – Lessons Learned Part 4

Bill Holmes

Jan 2, 2021
3 min

My experience with “Cancel Culture”, Part 12 – Lessons Learned Part 4

“It happens; incompetence is rewarded more often than not.” Jeff Lindsay, Darkly Dreaming Dexter “Never give a clown too many balls to juggle.” Will Leamon I was a victim of “cancel culture”. In the beginning I wasn’t even aware it was happening. I went from being the second in command of a non-profit to being completely removed from that organization in less than 6 weeks! If you haven’t read the story, you can find it beginning on my October 14 post. Had I realized I was bei

My experience with “Cancel Culture”, Part 11 – Lessons Learned Part 3

Bill Holmes

Dec 27, 2020
3 min

My experience with “Cancel Culture”, Part 11 – Lessons Learned Part 3

“The most dangerous irony is, people are angry with others because of their own incompetence.” Amit Kalantri, Wealth of Words “Secrecy breeds incompetence because where there is failure, failure is kept secret.” Julian Assange I was a victim of “cancel culture”. In the beginning I wasn’t even aware it was happening. I went from being the second in command of a non-profit to being completely removed from that organization in less than 6 weeks! If you haven’t read the story, yo

My experience with “Cancel Culture”, Part 9 - Lessons Learned Part 1

Bill Holmes

Dec 8, 2020
3 min

My experience with “Cancel Culture”, Part 9 - Lessons Learned Part 1

“The problem with incompetence is its inability to recognize itself.” Orrin Woodward “When success and incompetence meet, disaster is not far away.” Robert Kiyosaki I was a victim of “cancel culture”. In the beginning I wasn’t even aware it was happening. I went from being the second in command of a non-profit to being completely removed from that organization in less than 6 weeks! I have been an executive in a large organization for almost two decades, so that was quite an i

My experience with “Cancel Culture”, Part 7 – How I got canceled: They use your decency against you

Bill Holmes

Nov 28, 2020
3 min

My experience with “Cancel Culture”, Part 7 – How I got canceled: They use your decency against you

“A campaign ought to demonstrate the basic human decency of the candidate. That means your First Amendment rights end at the tip of your opponent's nose - even in the matter of political rhetoric.” Mike Pence “It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office.” H. L. Mencken Cancel culture is part of our society now. You can’t just disagree with someone

My experience with “Cancel Culture”, Part 3 – How I got canceled: He faked being a victim

Bill Holmes

Oct 24, 2020
3 min

My experience with “Cancel Culture”, Part 3 – How I got canceled: He faked being a victim

“This is the culture of the micro-aggression, where people literally seek out opportunities to be offended....Victim status is so desirable that it's constantly faked or exaggerated, and claims that one is not a victim are met with indignation.” David French “He knew how much pride his people took him being forever misunderstood.” Davis Bunn, Lion of Babylon Cancel culture is part of our society now. You can’t just disagree with someone; you must destroy them. A friend and I

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